[Music] or it could be that there's a major player in the market like a central bank who's quietly acquired a lot of Futures in the past and now is surprising the market by taking delivery of more than usual Futures instead of rolling them and simultaneously because it can't get delivery of all these bars in the spot month is simultaneously buying more Futures because they want to acquire we got to we got a lot faster than that now and I think the chances of us getting to 3,000 are quite High we're almost on top
of it now got about 6060 $70 to go uh but when I said that I think we were maybe a couple of hundred away for 2600 at the start of the Year well let me start off by just uh showing to your viewers uh what commodity price is doing I'm looking here at the uh it'll come on your screen in a second at the crb index there I I think you could you're watching silver News Daily subscribe for more silver deliveries are exploding 235% above previous records central banks are scrambling for gold like never
before and gold itself is on the verge of Smashing through $3,000 an ounce but what if I told you this isn't just a coincidence what if these shocking moves are signs of something much bigger a global financial event that could rewrite Market history imagine a scenario where the world's Financial Giants are preparing for a collapse they won't warn you about silver deliveries detonating Comics turning into a physical cash Market overnight and central banks hoarding gold at record levels this isn't just Market volatility
it could be the start of a dollar crushing Inferno what's really driving this panic and how high could silver and gold go when the dust settles stick with me because what you're about to hear might change the way you see the markets forever see that now um so what you see here is the commodity research Bureau uh it's called the Thompson Reuters core commodity crb index uh and it's showing the commodity index MJ Commodities which are cver of the Consumer Price Index at the end of the day they have risen by
18% over the last year uh there's a quite quite a lag from Commodities into the consumer prices but it's only a question of time before that will affect consumer prices and consumer prices will start to rise and what I'm going to show you on the next slide um is the monthly inflation rates that's the inflation rate for just one month not for the full year and you can see that the inflation rate was coming down from half a perc right through to October uh until June uh this is uh from January 23
through to October uh 24 we had a fall inflation when it actually went negative in the month of uh June 24 and then from July 24 we can see that inflation starts to rise uh it's not in July it's .2 August .2 September .2 or for the month October .2 November .3 December .4 and January 0.5 that's inflation for the month so what we have looking at the next slide is a trend now as core inflation starts to come off the bottom and Rise which means this hope of getting to 2% inflation isn't going to
happen inflation rates are heading higher and I think the market can see that and it certainly makes people think about discussing at least inflation Hedges um now you wanted to talk about what's going on in the commod in the gold market and gold prices so I'll start off by showing you a very interesting chart this chart which we're looking at here shows you the near dat Futures Contract minus the spot price of gold so the near dated gold future minus the spot price of gold so what happens when
you have so typically these Futures contracts they run for two months and then they get to right down to the spot month and the premium on the future gets to zero so when we're two months away normally the price of the Futures ref reflects the spot price plus interest for two months that's called the carry cost and then every day it goes down a bit down a bit down a bit until spot equals the future then we have the new Futures Contract and it starts over again so you can see these multiple
triangle shapes but if you look at the one where we get far right to the current contract which happens to be the February contract you can see the pattern is broken there's something it's all over the place it's it's it's gone it's like very chaotic it's all over the place there is no there is no normal pattern and that means that something very strange the February silver contract has just sent shock waves through the market shattering previous records with a delivery surge 43% higher
than anything we've seen before and here's the kicker there's still time left in the delivery window think about that this isn't some slow predictable climb this is a rapid almost desperate move that's raising eyebrows across the industry why the sudden Rush what's fueling this unprecedented appetite for physical silver to put it into perspective the last time we saw a delivery surge anywhere close to this was in December when 45.8 million ounces changed hands an event tied to the Russian invasion of
Ukraine back in 2022 but even that pales in comparison to what's happening now the February contract historically an inactive month has already become the largest inactive delivery month ever with 4,3 70 contracts delivered and an entire week of Trading still left on the clock that's 43% higher than the previous record from January 2022 for an inactive month this is unheard of what does this tell us it suggests that something far larger is brewing beneath the surface something that's pushing Big
players to lock in physical silver at an accelerating Pace the usual patterns don't apply anymore demand is surging at levels that simply don't align with traditional Market cycles and when silver delivery Spike like this it's often a sign that smart money is bracing for impact but why now and more importantly what happens if this trend keeps accelerating month because people will be buying the spot month and selling the future month to because they can't get the goal and they have no
choice but that's not happening something completely opposite of what we're expecting is happening the Futures month is going to a premium to the spot month over and above what we would expect so we're seeing the future month the contango as it's known trading instead of trading at let's say $2 or3 over spot for the February delivery and only few days ago in February we we're seeing $10 or $15 over spot giving rise to a potentially extremely high return for those who do have gold bars could
hold the spot in New York and sell the future but why is the F but that should normalize that normally that's arbitraged away within minutes why is that consist instantly higher than it should be well what that means is there's a player in the market somewhere who's not only taking delivery of the spot he's also whoever it is we don't know buying the Futures and pushing the Futures up to an unreasonable premium over and above the spot which makes no sense so it might become clear down the
line what's happening it could be um people uh who are in the no saying hey there's a lot of shorts out there they can't get their hands on the gold we're going to squeeze them and we're going to uh buy Spot and buy future push the price of gold up and up to make them pay it could be that going on or it could be that there's a major player in the market like a central bank who's quietly acquired a lot of Futures in the past and now is surprising the market by taking delivery of more than usual
Futures instead of rolling them simultaneously because it can't get delivery of all these bars in the spot month is simultaneously buying more Futures because they want to acquire a lot of gold in a hurry with February's silver surge setting new records all eyes are now locked on the pivotal March contract and things are heating up fast there are just six days left until first notice day and the March contract is running hotter than anyone expected but why is this particular contract so
important because March isn't just another month it's a major delivery period that often sets the tone for Silver's Market Direction and right now the signals couldn't be clearer demand is accelerating at a pace that suggests something big is coming let's break this down the leadup to First notice day is always telling it's when Traders must decide whether they're serious about taking delivery of the physical metal or just playing the paper game but here's the twist this time buyers aren't
backing down the March contract is seeing sustained time demand and with the clock tick the pressure is building 6 days might not sound like much but in the world of Commodities trading that's an eternity especially when Market participants are scrambling to secure metal in a tightening Supply environment why the urgency it could be linked to Growing fears about physical availability the February surge wasn't a one-off it was a warning shot if the March contract follows a similar trajectory we're
looking at a scenario where back-to-back delivery surges signal a structural shift in the silver market it's not just about speculative trading anymore this is about securing real physical assets and when major delivery months like March start running hot it often points to underlying stress in the system a stress that could trigger sharp price movements if Supply can't keep up but what happens if March surpasses February's record-breaking pace could we be witnessing the early stages of a
silver squeeze the countdown has begun and the next 6 days could reveal everything everything are institutional players hedging against a looming financial event or is this the smart money preparing for Silver's next explosive move is going on in the Futures market and we can see a little bit what's going on if I look at the next slide which shows you the number of delivery notices per month going back uh all the way back to December last year uh December 23 that is very few contracts gold Futures contracts
actually get to be delivered because usually they closed out the buyers and the sellers close their contract and then enroll it into a future month and we have major delivery months and minor delivery months uh we'll ignore the minor delivery months which aren't so important but the major delivery months run February April June August October December and back to February now if you look at this chart you can see that month after month we typically never have more mostly we don't have more than
30,000 contracts delivered or delivery notices as they call them the highest was in uh June when it was 30,000 but go back a year ago to February 2024 there were 20,000 delivery notices this February a year later there's more than three times as many there's 7 so far and the month's not over yet there's 73,4 delivery notices basically meaning a lot of people are taking the gold out of comex rather than rolling the contract into a Future's month so the question which I don't have an absolute
answer for but we'll play with that a little bit is why are people taking delivery of their gold at the moment what's going on here um so I'll just look a little bit on the next slide with the with the actual numbers on the left hand side you've got the you can see the actual hard numbers for the CX gold liy and as you can see it's up 255 per as of yesterday and the silver delivery is 235% higher than usual now here's where things get truly unusual the February silver contract didn't just break
records it shattered expectations in a way that defies typical Market Behavior over 56% of the delivered metal came from contracts created after first notice day let that sink in more than half of the silver delivered wasn't even part of the initial lineup this is a major deviation from the norm so typically deliveries post first notice day are minimal almost an afterthought but this time it's become the main event and that tells us one thing urgency but why would Traders pile into new contracts after the delivery window had
technically opened the answer is simple panic opportunity or maybe a bit of both if Traders are rushing to secure physical silver after first notice day it suggests that something triggered a sudden surge in demand were they caught off guard by tightening Supply or did a key Market signal convince them that Silver's price was about to run higher forcing them to lock in deliveries at any cost this kind of post fnd activity is rare and speaks volumes it indicates a Scramble for physical metal an
environment where buyers know no longer trust paper promises in typical delivery Cycles post fnd activity barely registers but now it's the headline the sheer volume of these late stage deliveries is rewriting the rules it's as if Traders woke up overnight realizing that paper contracts won't cut it anymore they want the real thing and they want it now could this Sudden Rush signal a deeper liquidity issue in the silver market or is it a strategic move by institutional players seizing control
of physical assets before an anticip at Price breakout either way the silver market isn't behaving as it normally would and when markets deviate from their usual patterns it often means that a major shift is on the horizon so the question remains what forced this hand what caused traders to abandon the safety of standard timelines and dive head first into physical silver even after the clock had started ticking something big is brewing and it's only getting harder to ignore there talk about what's going on in London
a lot of the gold dealers and these would be uh companies hedge funds Banks and others who play the kerx market would normally go short the the future so two months out three months but they they're short it but they're fully covered because they hold gold or at least some of the gold in London why do they hold in London because that's a great place to hold your gold and lease it out and the people who have shorted gold actually have no worries in normal times because they think we'll get to the
current month and I'll just roll it over into the future month and nobody will ever ask for delivery never happens or almost never happens except it is happening this time but they've got the gold in London so the normal way of thinking is well if I have to deliver I'll just ship the gold from London convert the 400 oun Bars into 100 ounz bars and within 2 days are be able to deliver the gold in New York except as a hiccup the bank of England and the lbma are facing a large number of requests
for delivery of girl bars to New York and there's a large backlog the backlog could be somewhere in the region of four to eight weeks now which means that those people who are short on New York they may be fully covered because they got the gold but the problem is it's not in the right shape or size not 100 G bars and it's not in New York it's in London they can't get it to New York in time so what are they being forced to do they're being forced to buy back the contract that they
shorted and roll it out for a future event a future date by shorting the future now normally when that happens you'd think that the contango would go to a bation in other words an unusual situation you think the spot month would be higher than the Future comx Has flipped the script traditionally known as a paper trading Hub where Futures contracts are settled in cash it's now transforming into a physical cash Market what does that mean it means Traders aren't just speculating anymore
they're demanding the metal in hand and they're demanding it fast this isn't some minor technical shift it's a fundamental change that signals deep-seated concerns about counterparty risks and the reliability of paper promises for years comx operated as a platform where most contracts were closed out before delivery cash was King but now record high transactions during the delivery period show a market rushing to secure physical silver and gold Traders are no longer comfortable with just exposure they want the real
deal right now the message is clear trust in the paper Market is eroding and the rush for physical metal suggests that something big is pushing them to secure tangible assets but what's driving the shift one major factor could be the fear of liquidity drying up when confidence in the system starts to waver the last thing anyone wants is to be left holding a paper contract backed by empty promises physical metal becomes the ultimate insurance policy a hedge against not just inflation but systemic
risk and right now that insurance is being snapped up at record pace and the timing couldn't be more telling as X morphs into a physical delivery Hub it raises a critical question is this the first sign of a larger liquidity crisis if institutional players believe that future deliveries might not be guaranteed it would explain the scramble we're seeing they're locking in metal today because they're unsure it'll be available tomorrow and when that fear spreads it can turn into a
self-fulfilling prophecy a run on Silver that pushes prices into Uncharted Territory this transformation of comics isn't happening in a vacuum it's part of a broader pattern central banks hoarding gold record ETF inflows and now silver deliveries detonating past all historical Norms the silver market is sending a clear signal something is Shifting and fast the question is are we witnessing a temporary Market anomaly or is this the beginning of a new era where physical silver Reigns supreme but the gold price is still
going up which definitely tells me that there's something bigger a foot than retail investors retail investors are not in the market they're sellers uh and that uh whoever's in the market I believe it must be it must likely as central banks I mean there could be some uh big players but I I think it's really it's not the man in the street yet we don't have the media that we have in the ma seven where every Tom Dick and Harry is talking to his friends over dinner about how much money he made in the
video no you don't go to dinner parties and hear someone say hey I bought some gold two weeks ago look it's up $10 that's not happening but you are hearing you still you've still got people talking about how how clever they were to buy the tech technology stocks that's that's the conversation for those who are talking about Investments they're talking about either Bitcoin or they're talking about the mag s so I don't think um gold is in the conversation for the
man in the street yet I think it will be we're a long way from that or we someway from that um and I but I think it's coming because the gold price itself is starting to rise but what I'd like to do if I if I may um is show you another slide which shows you roughly where we are um in the gold cycle so who exactly is behind this surge in silver demand the answer might surprise you silver demand can be broken down into four key tiers first the bullion Banks second customer accounts holding the large
5,000 Oz contracts third smaller 1,000 Oz contract holders and lastly retail investors but right now all all the action all the smart money is concentrated in just one place the 5,000 Oz contracts that's where the big players are placing their bets and the rest of the market strangely quiet retail demand usually a good indicator of broader Market interest remains subdued even the micro silver contracts the 1,000 Oz variety popular among smaller institutions are seeing a Slowdown and Retail proxies like pslv
Sprout's physical Trust barely moving this is the exact opposite of what we saw during the silver squeeze where retail demand went through the roof so why are the largest customer accounts the so-called smart money loading up now while retail investors remain asleep the likely answer information Advantage institutional players often move ahead of retail investors because they have better access to information deeper Market insights and the ability to influence price movements if the biggest
players are stacking silver while retail sits on the sidelines it raises an urgent question what do they know that the rest of the market doesn't perhaps they see what others don't the fragility in the physical silver supply chain or the growing stress in the financial system maybe they're betting on a silver breakout triggered by macroeconomic factors like looming recession fears rate cuts and collapsing confidence in Fiat currencies or perhaps they anticipate a short squeeze where
Silver's artificially low price can't hold much longer under real Market pressure one thing thing is clear when the smart money makes a move it's rarely without reason their focus on the 5,000 Oz contracts while bypassing smaller options and Retail plays signals a strategic accumulation this isn't speculation this is preparation they're securing large volumes of physical silver now likely expecting conditions that will make future access harder pricier or both and if history has taught us anything it's
that retail investors of realize the opportunity too late after the price has already run so the question remains are these institutional players preparing for a silver surge that retail investors will miss or is this accumulation the first step for triggering the breakout you want jump on a racing on a moving train before it gets away from you Market follow you know that to a very small extent I think some investment managers are starting to look at whether they should have a little bit of gold in the
portfolios um I've been in Switzerland uh for 40 odd years when I first arrived in switzland we traditionally had 5% gold in every portfolio that's discretion portfolio by the time we got to the uh about 2000 from about 2000 to 2010 or thereabouts the gold price was it those the uh sorry Pi about the 2010 through to to 2020 20ish the gold price went nowhere in that decade so little by little the gold started to vanish from the portfolios are asset allocators that the people who tell you as an investment
manager how much gold you should have in a portfolio they started to say we want more in equities we want more in hedge funds we want more in customized products we want more this and that and the other where should we take it oh we take it from the gold Go's doing nothing so little by little that gold exposure went down to zero now it's in Switzerland it's stting to go back up again some banks have even put gold as their most preferred asset already most preferred means they'll
have 3% or 5% uh some banks haven't done that yet I don't know how it is in the rest of the world but I think there's going to be with the rise in gold price people will be inserting Golds into spec gold as a experiment into specimen portfolios back testing and working out the sharp ratio that's a ratio which measures risk and reward gets improved by a little bit of gold in the portfolio so I think as they do this maths they will start to say ah it now makes sense to have gold in the
portfolio so I think that could be just starting but it's got a long way to go while silver demand is quietly surging among institutional players something even more revealing is happening in the gold market central banks those who control the levers of the Global Financial system are buying gold at a pace not seen in years over 1,000 tons of gold purchased for the third consecutive year with some central banks ramping up buying by over 50% in just the last quarter Poland Allah has added 90 tons to its reserves
but the big question is why now what are central banks preparing for the timing couldn't be more suspicious gold is flirting with an all-time high of $2,956 and yet central banks are still buying aggressively historically central banks accumulate gold when they see economic instability on the horizon whether it's currency devaluation geopolitical risks or a breakdown in the Global Financial system this isn't just portfolio diversification this is a defensive move what's even more
interesting is that their gold buying spree is happening alongside the record-breaking surge in silver deliveries could these two events be connected central banks are known for playing the long game They Don't Panic by assets unless they foresee systemic risks if they believe the doar dominance is weakening or that Fiat currencies in general are losing credibility gold becomes the ultimate hedge and when central banks Panic it's often the smartest warning signal for the rest of the market but there's a silver twist here
historically when gold prices surge due to Central Bank buying silver follows with far more explosive gains silver is often referred to as Gold's Shadow but when it moves it does so faster and harder the current disconnect gold nearing $3,000 while silver lags might be the biggest opportunity of all central banks may not be directly buying silver but their gold Panic could be setting the stage for Silver's most aggressive rally yet consider this if central banks are hedging against a dollar crisis
inflation shock or liquidity freeze Gold's rise past $3,000 is inevitable and when that happens silver doesn't just follow it plays catchup with a Vengeance every historical gold run has seen Silver outperform in percentage gains the silver market is smaller and more volatile meaning even minor shifts in institutional interest can cause massive price spikes so are central banks indirectly triggering the next silver super cycle their gold Panic might be the final piece of the puzzle because when the institutions that print
money start hoarding hard assets you can be sure that the era of cheap silver is coming to an end well of course we've had Mr Trump's election and he's seen as a bit of a wild card you don't know what he's going to do tomorrow um so that has increased the level of uncertainty not only for investors generally but also for central banks they don't know what you know when he opens his math tomorrow what might happen um maybe one of the TR one of the catalysts for the rise in
gold prices in New York over and above elsewhere uh was the threat of tariffs now there's no reason why he would need to put tariffs on gold I mean the US gold mining industry isn't being dumped on nobody China or no there's no country in the world shipping their gold to America at half price and dumping on America I mean they may be shipping their cars or their iPhones or their electronic goods and dumping that way all they steel who knows but there's no way they're dumping
gold because the gold gets sold in the United States at exactly the same price as every other country there's not no industry in the United States which needs to be protected if they if they were to stop gold Imports or put tariffs on gold Imports first of all those countries that have got gold to sell would sell it somewhere else it's easy to sell everywhere and secondly it wouldn't help the American gold mining industry because they're not going to suddenly start opening a ton of new
mines and if even if they do take decades for that to come on stream uh it's not a necess new industry which needs to be protected there really is no need to protect America or Americans from foreign gold miners so I don't think there's a reason to put tariff on gold unless they just want to raise revenue for the American government that's another story uh but that could have been the the fear that terrorists would come in might have been one of the reasons why which sparked off this
initial flurry of go buying and then once the flurry starts it can become self-fulfilling because people say okay they might not put ter on but the price is rising I better get some cuz you want to jump gold is knocking on the door of a historic Milestone $3,000 an ounce after touching an all-time high of $2,956 it briefly pulled back but the momentum remains undeniable eight consecutive weeks of gains the best streak since 2020 and all the technical indicators suggest that Bulls still have the upper hand but why does this $3,000
level matter so much because it's not just a number it's a psychological barrier a point where Market sentiment could flip overnight sending both gold and silver into a frenzied rally technical analysts believe that breaking $3,000 would ignite a wave of momentum buying drawing in retail investors hedge funds and institutional players alike the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level sits at 2856 already tested the 30-day SMA at 2,800 $ 32 has proven resilient and despite mild selling pressure the RSI
and macd indicators show that Gold's upward momentum remains intact a push past 3,000 could signal the start of a new bull phase one driven by Panic momentum and fear of missing out but here's where silver comes into the picture historically silver lags behind gold in the early stages of a rally but once gold crosses key psychological thresholds silver doesn't just follow it explodes the gold to Silver ratio is currently at levels that have historically preceded silver breakouts if gold moves decisively past
$3,000 silver could surge at a pace that leaves investors stunned we're talking about silver potentially playing catchup with triple digigit percentage gains in a matter of months this isn't just speculation the setup is right in front of us Gold's rally is being fueled by Safe Haven demand as recession fears Mount Central Banks hoard gold and the Dollar's strength waines every one of these macroeconomic drivers has historically pushed silver even higher once the breakout begins and with
Silver's relatively small Market size it wouldn't take much to trigger a supply crunch that sends prices soaring so what happens when gold breaks $3,000 it becomes a global headline drawing new money into the metals Market but silver silver becomes the trade of the decade the asset that out Paces Gold's gains driven by A Perfect Storm of industrial demand Supply constraints and investor fomo the race to $3,000 gold is nearing its climax but the silver story that's only just beginning
well that that's I mean I've read that speculation too that could be that they're trying to replace the bars which have been lent out or stolen or which aren't real or who knows what uh it's a possibility oh could be another Central Bank or central banks trying to acquire a position before it becomes apparent that they are in a hurry now last year there was something like 27 central banks acquired gold they increased their gold Holdings and when you look down the list with the exception of one which is
Poland none of those central banks are the best friends with the USA so over the last year or two we've seen the United States weaponize the dollar basically saying your bank balances are frozen and not only that we're going to pay your bank balances to your enemy so when you weaponize somebody's dollars it makes those people who are not the best friends with the United States think well do I really want to hold all these dollars we haven't done anything wrong yet but who knows how
we're going to feel in a year or two we have to have a plan B and there could be a generalized move I think well there is a generaliz move by many central banks now to start acquiring some gold at the expense of treasuries and you know we see that in particular with China where over the last year or two 85% of the increase of China's reserves has been represented by the rise in the value of their gold Holdings through two things one they've been purchasing gold and that's been ongoing and
secondly the price of gold has been rising but they continue to buy despite the gold price being at an alltime record so reading between the lines they don't really care what the gold price is record or not record they want more of it so even though almost all of the increase in their reserves is represented by gold they still want more because the amount of gold they hold per citizen is very small compared with that of the United States so it it it could well be a central buyer trying to hurry up a
Central Bank buyer like CH for example trying to hurry up and buy gold but of course the the question would be why would they buy in New York when they could buy in London well perhaps they're buying in London too we don't know uh I suppose when you're in a hurry you buy wherever you could get it as gold edges closer to the $3,000 Milestone recession fears are adding fuel to the fire the market narrative has shifted dramatically what started as optimism for Pro growth policies has turned into
widespread concern that the new US administration's aggressive cost cutting initiatives may actually be triggering real economic damage the latest Services PMI data shocked investors pushing the city economic surprise index to its most negative level since September 2024 the result treasury yields have plummeted with the 10year yield falling to its lowest point in over 2 months at 4.34% why does this matter matter because falling yields are a signal that investors expect rate cuts and soon swap
markets are now pricing in 53 basis points of rate cuts for 2025 a full two months earlier than previously anticipated the treasury's auction of 2-year notes Drew record demand showing that investors are positioning themselves for lower rates and potential economic turbulence and when recession fears take Center Stage precious metals especially gold and silver become the go-to safe haven ass assets but Silver's story in this context is even more compelling while gold benefits immediately from Safe Haven demand
Silver's gains often lag until recession fears become recession realities silver isn't just a monetary metal it's also an industrial Powerhouse in a typical recession industrial demand would slow but this time it's different green energy transitions electric vehicles and 5G infrastructure are driving silver demand higher regardless of economic conditions this unique combination of monetary and Industrial demand makes silver the standout performer when economic uncertainty Peaks and here's where
things get interesting if the Federal Reserve Cuts rates earlier than expected the dollar will weaken further making silver and gold even more attractive the last time we saw a similar setup low yields recession fears and bullish technicals silver surged over 400% in less than 2 years the conditions are eerily similar today the market Market is teetering on the edge of a shift from monetary tightening to easing and when that pivot happens silver could explode as investors rush into s hard assets
recession fears are no longer just Whispers they're becoming the dominant Market narrative and as history shows when gold leads the way during times of uncertainty silver follows but with far greater intensity the countdown to $3,000 gold may be dominating headlines but make no mistake the real story the one with explosive potential is silver's long overdue breakout and with recession fears mounting that breakout even though they're outperforming this year by historical standards they've got
a long way to go um and I I've I've done a bit of a study on a few of them uh barck gold Newmont and uh more recently uh harbard gold in South Africa the analysts are underestimating at the moment the increase in earnings per share that we're going to see in the current year and in and next year and that's based on the fact that most of these gold ring companies have hedged part of their portfolio typically 50% of their portfolio or their gold they hedged it for the future they've got uh
they sold it forward and or they've got caps and collars which limit their upside but also limit their downside and half they tend to let run and get exposed to the full blood last of the gold mining Market but based on everything that can be known the gold they're selling this year will be being sold for a substantially higher price than last year and their costs have not increased by so much the net result of that is we can expect to see profits of many gold mining companies increasing in the current year by more
than 100% and sometimes by several 100% and because of the lag defect due to the hedging that will happen and assuming we stay at 2,900 for the go price that will be happening again next year another 100 or 200 or 300% increase in the profits on this year's GRE now when you look at the forecast from the analysts yes they are showing substantial increases in the expected profits and every month or two which goes by you see that forecast being increased so each alist goes a little bit higher than the other but
they all stay within the p packs there and the one on the bottom moves level to the top then the one the bottom so they they're Bing on top of each other raising the forecast but the actual number which will come out is up here and it'll take some time before the analyst forecasts re the likely outcome so to to my mind gold biding stocks uh are if they reflect if they're reflecting what the Allies are forecasting they're underestimating what will actually happen and the the ones I looked at are fairly
cheap um the one I looked at today how many gold it's on a p ratio about seven and that's going to drop to about four based on the price of gold Rising now that's not a recommendation to buy any particular stock but I'm saying as a generality the sector is a very cheap sector compared with the rest of the market the gold gold mining sector and I think the same would apply to the silver mining sector it's Rel cheap compared with other stocks you can buy it's worth a look and it's a very small sector of
the market so if and when even a little bit of money starts to find its way into that sector it can really take off as we are seeing already happening with the sector now being up 20 something perc compared with gold up about 133% so it looks like it's starting but it's got a long way to go if that continues but my my personal view is one we we seeing the we're seeing some movement into the sector now uh and I think that can only accelerate as people start to realize that one the multiples are low and two those
forecasts being made by the um analysts are constantly being increased while recession fears and Gold's charge toward $3,000 dominate the headlines there's another surge happening quietly but with potentially explosive consequences exchange traded funds ETFs backed by physical gold have seen their largest net inflows since 201 22 institutional money is pouring into bullion backed ETFs signaling renewed confidence in physical assets over paper promises A&Z banking group analysts have
noted a discernable increase in physical flows adding even more technical support to Gold's climb but the real shock is coming from comx since late November comx approved warehouses have seen physical gold inventories surge by an astonishing 73.5% hitting levels not seen since July 2022 why Traders are increasingly opting for physical delivery rather than settling contracts in cash this Trends suggests Rising concerns about counterparty risks and the reliability of paper gold and the fear of Trump's
tariff threats extending to Precious Metals has only intensified the rush to secure physical assets before prices potentially Spike here's where silver enters the spotlight while the gold hoarding on comx might seem like a separate phenomenon it's actually a crucial part of the silver story Comics turning into a physical delivery hub for gold sets a precedent When Faith in paper markets breaks for one metal it can quickly break for another Silver's much smaller Market size makes it even
more vulnerable to Rapid price movements if a similar rush for physical silver Begins the price could Skyrocket with far less buying pressure than gold requires and the timing couldn't be more critical physical gold prices in Asia especially in India are now trading at at a discount to Futures due to grw and a week retail demand signaling Supply disruptions at the same time jewelry companies are feeling the pinch as gold lease rates tighten hinting at a growing scarcity in the physical Market if gold
continues its rally Silver's role as the poor man's gold will become more pronounced pulling in retail investors looking for exposure at a lower price point and potentially triggering a massive silver squeeze so what's next with ETF inflows accelera comx inventories rising and physical delivery becoming the preferred settlement method the stage is set Silver's Supply constraints combined with increasing institutional interest create the perfect storm for a price explosion gold may be nearing $3,000 but
Silver's rally is just getting started the question isn't if silver will break out it's when and how violently it will move when the floodgates finally open not at all and I think I think the other thing which is perhaps worth saying is gold miners gold miners as a collection still remain very significantly below the Peaks seen a few years ago and I'll just show you a a chart a longterm chart on that where you can see go back back to screen share now what you're looking at here is going
back to 2008 the performance of the two ETFs called GDX and gdxj that's the gold mining ETF of the major companies GDX and the gold mining uh ETF of the Juniors gdxj uh it's all in percentage terms from 2008 compared with the gold price at the top in red now you can see that since 2008 the gold price is up nearly 300% it's about 200 it's more than 275% whereas the GDX and the gdxj which are the gold mining indices are still in negative territory they're below where they were in
2008 despite the fact the gold price is nearly triple what it was so for example the gdxj is down 50% from 2008 and the GDX X looks like it's down about 10 12% since 2008 so relatively speaking we're not seeing any participation in the gold shares Market except maybe we are because now I'm going to turn to the current year 2025 and you can see that in the current year whilst gold is heading higher and it's up about 12 133% now you can see the GDX and gdxj has started at least in
the current year to outperformed gold we've been waiting for years and years for this to happen uh and at last now we've got the gdxj up about 23% and the GDX up about 25% compared with gold up about 12 133% so at long last for those who've been uh I suppose very disappointed with gold mining shares we're starting to see a degree of outperformance in these Bing stocks this is it the moment where all the pieces come together silver deliveries have detonated 235% above record levels with February's
surge obliterating previous highs in March poised to follow comx isn't just a Futures playground anymore it's turning into a physical cash Market Traders aren't playing games they want real metal and they want it now central banks are in a full-blown gold Panic hoarding over 1,000 tons annually as gold teases the $3,000 Mark the smartest money in the world is preparing for something the question is are you because this isn't just about silver or gold it's about what these moves signal a potential
Global Financial event that could rewrite everything we thought we knew about precious metals when central banks institutional investors and big players start hoarding physical assets it's not random it's strategic they see what's coming a weakening dollar a slowing economy a system under stress and history tells us that when gold breaks through psychological barriers like $3,000 silver doesn't just follow it explodes with silver still trading at a fraction of its historical Peak the
upside potential is staggering the pieces are in place recession fears pushing investors to safe havens falling treasury yields signaling rate cuts and physical demand overwhelming comic's paper markets the silver squeeze that retail investors dreamed of could be triggered by the institutions themselves and when silver runs it runs hard it lags behind gold at first but when it catches up it slingshots past expectations sometimes by hundreds of percentage points could $100 silver be on the horizon with this setup it's not
just possible it's plausible but here's the bottom line the window to act is closing Fest smart money has already made its move the main mream media won't warn you and by the time the headlines hit the opportunity will be gone if silver breaks through key resistance levels the breakout could be historic and those who position themselves early will reap the biggest rewards so what do you think how high could silver go in this dollar crushing Inferno let us know in the comments and if you want to stay ahead of the
financial reset make sure to subscribe to the channel Silver's time is coming and those who prepare now will be the ones who benefit the most but remember this is isn't financial advice always speak to a qualified professional before making any financial decisions this is the gold price year by year going all the way back to 1970 from January through to December and on the far left hand side this is all in percentage terms by the way on the far left hand side you see a dark blue where I'm moving my
mouse I think you can see that the price of gold this year in percentage terms as you can see although it's towards the top of the pack it's by no means the highest ever performance it's well it's well within the Realms of normality historically going back over the years there plenty of years historically when gold did something similar to what we're seeing this year uh one can hardly say that it's um uh the best performance ever at least not since the 1 of January um so if you
look at the way the gold pric has developed over the years you can see that we could still if we just stayed with stay within the pack of what's happened year by year we could still see the gold price appreciating substantially for the rest of this year I was uh earlier this year saying uh back in January saying I think we'll hit 3,000 well um it's kind of
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